Pandemic and Mega Slums

 

I have often said that my journeys of understanding lead down roads with surprising detours and my latest one is no exception. 

I started last night with an article from LiveScience titled "Enlightened Medicine Found in Dark Ages":

[snip]

People living in Europe during early Medieval times (400—1200 A.D.) actually had a progressive view of illness because disease was so common and out in the open, according to the research presented at a recent historical conference.

Instead of being isolated or shunned, the sick were integrated into society and taken care of by the community, the evidence suggests.

 

An interesting article that set me looking up the pandemic plagues of the Middle Ages, the major two being: The Plague of Justinian, and the better known Black Death.  This in turn reminded me of our current overcrowded cities which landed me where I stopped: The slums of the megacities.

 

Before Avian Influenza entered the consciousness of the world, or at least the more eccentric, I was reading books about the (then) current buzz topic: Emerging Infectious Diseases.  Hemorrhagic Fevers (I.E.: Ebola, Rift Valley Fever, Crimea-Congo Hemorrhagic Fever), Plague, and the Oldie, but still frightening, Small Pox.  I read all the books then currently available for the lay audience and one of the concerns almost universally expressed in the genre was the disease breading grounds presented in the slums of the megacities.  It imprinted the concern on my consciousness that often pops up when I consider the disease implications of megacities (in general) during a potentially severe influenza pandemic.

Megacities are distinct from a "large" city, by way of a brief explanation I offer this snip taken from Wikipedia:

Megacities around the world

 

 

In 1950, New York was the only urban area with a population of over 10 million. Geographers have identified 25 such areas as of October 2005, as compared with 19 megacities in 2004 and only nine in 1985. This increase has happened as the world's population moves towards the high (75–85%) urbanization levels of North America and Western Europe.

Today, the largest megacity is the Greater Tokyo Area. The population of this urban agglomeration includes areas such as Yokohama and Kawasaki, and is estimated to be between 30 and 34 million. The variation in estimates can be accounted for by different definitions of what the area encompasses. While the prefectures of Tokyo, Chiba, Kanagawa, and Saitama are commonly included in statistical information, the Japan Statistics Bureau only includes the area within 50 kilometers of the Tokyo Metropolitan Government Offices in Shinjuku, thus arriving at a smaller population estimate.

The ten largest megacities, according to this criterion are, in decreasing order of population:

1. Tokyo, Japan (32,000,000)
2. Mexico City, Mexico (25,600,000)
3. Seoul, South Korea (23,100,000)
4. New York City, USA (21,800,000)
5. Mumbai (Bombay), India (21,100,000)
6. Delhi, India (20,800,000)
7. São Paulo, Brazil (20,300,000)
8. Osaka-Kobe-Kyoto, Japan (19,900,000)
9. Shanghai, China (18,600,000)
10. Los Angeles, USA (17,900,000)

Source: Th. Brinkhoff: The Principal Agglomerations of the World, 2006

 

As I was roaming the internet I came across a report by the UN put out for World Population Day (July 11) South Asia Population Urban Growth: A Challenge and an Opportunity, it seemed to be the perfect place to stop and concentrate on where my journey had led.

 

Notice the slum in the foreground of the picture below and keep these dated (1993 statistics) in mind:

 

 

Dhaka has a population of ~12 million for the greater metropolitan area, and overall Bangladesh has a population of roughly half that of the US.  For those curious about Dhaka visit the Wikipedia page here for general information and a few pictures depicting areas other than the slums, it is a very modern urban city.

 

 

Now that we have been given a glimpse of a megacity in the region consider that India, the country that almost wholly surrounds Bangladesh, has 3 additional megacities of similar problematic demographics and frightful statistics.  The statistic that jumped out at me as I read over the below is that India has more citizens living in slums than Canada has in total population.

 

The above three graphics are taken from the above linked UN Report.

 

I now ask you to think about the fact that the world has 21 megacities, many of them clustered in the same general area of the globe experiencing the most H5N1 outbreaks, and some of those outbreaks have included human infections.

 

Map from Mega Cities Task Force

 

When I allow myself to think about a pandemic strain of H5N1 loosed upon the slums of our megacities my grip on sanity is challenged.  The last time we had a severe influenza pandemic there were no megacities, there were only a few large cities. 

Yes, there have always been densely packed population centers, which is actually what set me on the megacity path even though I started at the beginnings of the Middle Ages, but nothing even remotely like the density and scale of present day.

As a bit of relevant comparison a quick estimation of New York City's 1918 population stood somewhere around 5 million, or about that of the present day Atlanta metropolitan area, the largest city I have ever been in.

 

I don't have any words to wrap up this entry; words fail me when I consider this particular issue of a potential severe PanFlu.

 

SZ

Comments

[SandraOne]

Crawford directed his reader's to your site last night. Was interesting reading what you write, thanks.

As far as the top mega cities go it was my thought that Japan would most likely fair the best, if there's a best that can go with pandemic survival.
Reason for saying that is from what I've heard and read the Japanese are more prudent and careful when it comes to cleanliness and taking preventive measures when there's an illness. I've heard that if a Japanese has a cold or such and has to go out in the public that they'll wear a mask.
Think I saw some decorative masks from there too awhile back, so the idea of protection is more of a reality for them than not.

Anyway, this was an interesting post, thanks for taking the time to share it with readers.